{"id":1037,"date":"2020-08-05T04:58:53","date_gmt":"2020-08-05T04:58:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/wallawallatrends.org\/newsletter\/?page_id=1037"},"modified":"2022-12-05T23:22:17","modified_gmt":"2022-12-05T23:22:17","slug":"2020q1","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/wallawallatrends.org\/newsletter\/2020q1\/","title":{"rendered":"Q1 2020 – Walla Walla Trends Newsletter"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The Port of Walla Walla realizes that all businesses are struggling with the current COVID-19 health and the economic crisis that is upon us<\/h3><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div> <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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We are continuing to receive and review the various financial support packages that may be available for assistance for our Walla Walla County businesses, including the Port tenants located within the Airport District. As one of the functions that the Port of Walla Walla is responsible for is serving as the ADO (Associate Development Organization). Through this function, we may be able to be the conduit for state and federal funding, should some come available.<\/p>

Please continue to keep us apprised of your business status. We want to see all businesses come out of this crisis, but know that some may not be able to endure this complete shutdown of commerce.<\/p>

We are all in this together and together we will come out of this stronger and better informed.<\/p>

Stay safe and healthy.<\/p>

Patrick H. Reay<\/p>

Executive Director
Port of Walla Walla
310 A. Street
Walla Walla, WA 99362
509-525-3100 Phone
509-525-3101 Fax
pr@portwallawalla.com<\/a><\/p>

Click here to visit the Port of Walla Walla website<\/a><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div> <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Census 2020 Response Rates \u2013 Interactive Map<\/h3>

How is your city responding?<\/h4><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div> <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Over the last year, this newsletter has featured a few articles on the importance of the decennial census. From a community indicator perspective, data collected during Census 2020 will be the foundation for estimates until 2030. Ultimately the decennial census is the largest data source for Walla Walla Trends, both directly (population, educational attainment, etc.) and indirectly (per capita figures such as gross domestic product, personal income and taxable retail sales).<\/p>

The\u00a0Census 2020 Response Rates interactive map<\/a>\u00a0shows in real-time Census 2020 response rates for the nation, all 50 states (and Puerto Rico), every Congressional District in the U.S. Further, this interactive includes the Cities of College Place, Prescott, Waitsburg, and Walla Walla, tribal areas, and census tracts. Zoom in on Washington State (or any point on the map) for greater detail.<\/p>

Households considered self-responders are those receiving their census form through the mail or dropped off by a Census worker. These processes began in time for most households to receive their census forms between March 12th<\/sup>\u00a0and 20th<\/sup>.\u00a0 The self-response rate includes all unduplicated online, regular mail, and phone responses of an area, while excluding any nonresponse follow-ups. No adjustment is made for vacant homes or undeliverable addresses.\u00a0<\/p>

Don\u2019t forget to check Census 2020 Response Rates map in the following weeks and months as the numbers get closer to, but never achieving 100%. The national self-response rate during Census 2010 was\u00a074%, with only twenty cities<\/a>\u00a0larger than 100,000 residents self-responding at 80% or higher.<\/p>

Since all households in the U.S. need to be accounted for, it takes an army of Bureau of Census workers on the ground to follow-up with non-responding households. But Census 2020 hasn't reached the point of knocking on doors yet and are encouraging people to respond \"as soon as you receive your invitation\" to minimize in-person follow-ups.\u00a0The\u00a0official message<\/a>\u00a0is this:<\/p>

\"It has never been easier to respond on your own, whether online, over the phone or by mail\u2014all without having to meet a census taker.\"<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div> <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Forecasting the COVID-19 Impact on Hospitals<\/h3>

Projecting the next 4-months<\/h4><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div> <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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By now, everyone knows COVID-19 poses a serious risk to both people and our health care system. One might be \u201cliving under a rock\u201d to not know this, but most likely, they\u2019re sheltering in . \u00a0<\/p>

Information seems to be changing by the hour and data is changing by the minute, creating what might be the perfect environment for all sorts of projections. While worst-case scenarios are important to predict if not for the simple purpose of preparing the best we can, they are on the outer fringes of predictions, and thus possible, but highly unlikely.<\/p>

Allowing worst-case scenarios more attention than they deserve creates unnecessary fear-making context nearly as important as data. Data helps us to see through the noise, but it still needs context.<\/p>

Through a simple, but effective dashboard, the\u00a0Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington<\/a>\u00a0(IMHE) provides context with the \u201cfirst set of estimates of predicted health service utilization and deaths due to COVID-19 by day for the next 4 months\u201d to \u201cdetermine the extent and timing of deaths and excess demand for hospital services for each state in the U.S.\u201d Specifically,\u00a0the dashboard<\/a>\u00a0was created \u201cto provide hospitals, policy makers, and the public with crucial information about how expected need aligns with existing resources, so that cities and states can best prepare.\u201d<\/p>

COVID-19 is expected to have peak demand on hospital resources in the U.S., shortages are projected to be 49,292 hospital beds, 14,601 ICU beds and 18,767 invasive ventilators.<\/p>

Context, however, shows of the projected U.S. shortages, 35,301 hospital beds and 6,949 ICU beds are for New York State alone. So, while yes, everyone is facing the same public health issue. But no, the global or even national projected estimates will be different from place to place within the U.S.<\/p>

Projected hospital resource peak use for all 50 U.S. States include: Hospital beds as both\u00a0Needed<\/em>\u00a0and\u00a0Available<\/em>\u00a0for both\u00a0Total<\/em>\u00a0and Intensive Care Unit (ICU)<\/em>\u00a0beds and the need for invasive ventilators. The caveat is communities must follow social distancing guidelines or the trajectory of these estimates will change for the worse.<\/p>

Additional information from the IMHE includes dates if\/when educational facilities were closed, non-essential services were closed, a stay at home order was issued. A spot is reserved for any orders to severely limit travel.<\/p>

It\u2019s website presents \u00a0two more graphs for each state and the U.S. \u2013 projected deaths per day and total projected deaths. Using the day with the most recent information, each graph uses confirmed data looking back in time (solid line), yet projections looking ahead (dotted line) with high and low uncertainty levels through the end of the COVID-19 pandemic. The official end of the pandemic will be called when 10 or fewer deaths in a day are recorded.<\/p>

A key assumption for the\u00a0 projections: \u00a0people continue to adhere to social distancing and any stay at home orders or travel restrictions (if any are imposed).<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div> <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Information Is Beautiful - How to Live Long<\/h3>

What really extends lifespan?<\/h4><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div> <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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What is the key to living a long, healthy life? It depends on who and when you asked. For example, in an era before 1950, occasionally\u00a0doctors were paid spokesmen<\/a>\u00a0for cigarette companies \u2013 a great choice since a doctor is obligated through the Hippocratic Oath to only endorse the healthiest brands. \u00a0<\/p>

In all fairness, they were unaware then to what is obvious now: tobacco in any form is unhealthy. We know we can greatly reduce the risk of tobacco-related illnesses by choosing not to use tobacco. Imagine going back in time a few decades and trying to convince Dr. Cam L. Marlboro he should quit his side gig as a puffing pitchman.<\/p>

As if the flu (pick any flavor), Black Plague, Cholera, Ebola, Smallpox, and Zika aren\u2019t enough, now the coronavirus....\u00a0<\/p>

I wish someone would just tell me what to do (or not to do) to increase my life expectancy, lifespan, and longevity, and I\u2019d do it (or not)!<\/p>

What\u2019s that you say,\u00a0Information Is Beautiful<\/a>? You know how I can\u00a0Live Long \u2013 and what could really increase my life expectancy, lifespan, and longevity?<\/em><\/a>\u00a0I\u2019m all ears!<\/p>

I see some of the things I can do to extend my lifespan are easy, such as having a long-lived maternal grandfather (thanks Grandpa Floyd) and having more pets. Others are debatable, such as getting married and \/or being polygamous. The obvious include avoiding cancer and heart disease, while the difficult include being rich and a woman (even though statistically women do live longer, this writer is currently a male). \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>

While COVID-29 is very serious, we thought it would be nice to take a light-hearted approach to this article. Whether working in essential industries or staying at home, we thank everyone who is doing their part.<\/p>

So, remember to live long, avoid routine work, lower cynical hostilities, and trade your cigarettes for close friends (and check out the Live Long interactive so all this makes better sense).<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div> <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Walla Walla\u2019s Economy Displaying Stability<\/h3>

Top-5 employing sectors continue growth<\/h4>

by Dr. Patrick Jones<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div> <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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With the unfortunate exception of the novel corona virus, life in Walla Walla generally doesn\u2019t change too fast. Population grows slowly, the local colleges and universities educate the same number of students, wineries keep producing world-class wines, and the mix of jobs remains stable.\u00a0Walla Walla Trends 1.3.5<\/a>\u00a0displays this stability in graph form.<\/p>

The indicator measures the shares of jobs in the county taken up by the five largest sectors. As one can observe, the height of the bars hasn\u2019t budged too much, indicating that shares of these top five, accounting for about 70% of the workforce, haven\u2019t grown or shrunk much over time. Due to its much large economy, Washington State\u2019s counterparts to these sectors sum to a lower percentage of the workforce, largely because any large economy will be more diversified than a smaller one.<\/p>

Within Walla Walla\u2019s top five sectors, the rankings have remained the same from 2003 to 2018, the most recent year for which data are available. Government remains the top sector, with 19.5% of the workforce in 2003 and moving up slightly to 20.3% in 2018. This was nearly four percentage points higher than the state average. Government is \u201cbig business\u201d here.<\/p>

Government jobs are usually dominated by local government counts, which in turn, are driven by public school district employment. This is true here, where 44% of all government jobs in 2018 were with local entities. That share, however, is considerably lower than in most Eastern Washington metros; for example, Spokane\u2019s local government jobs accounted for over 60% of the total.<\/p>

Why might Walla Walla depart from its regional peers? The answers are pretty obvious: the State penitentiary and the large presence of two federal agencies:\u00a0 the Army Corps of Engineers and the Veterans Administration.<\/p>

The second largest employment sector consists of Healthcare & Social Assistance. The second part of the sector includes workers in organizations that serve children, families, adults (especially the elderly), and vocational rehabilitation. If there has been a growth sector since in Walla Walla, this is one of the two. In 2018, it accounted for 15.1% of all jobs. Fifteen years prior, its share was about two percentage points lower.<\/p>

The presence of healthcare & social assistance organizations in the county is larger than in any Eastern Washington metro area except for Spokane. There it stood at 18.5% in 2018, undoubtedly the highest share among all the state\u2019s metro areas.<\/p>

The third largest sector was and is manufacturing. In 2018, its share of total employment was 14.1%. Walla Walla\u2019s labor concentration in manufacturing is the highest among Eastern Washington metro areas, and for that matter, for all counties in the state except Snohomish. True, the share has slipped from 2003 by one percentage point, but this is the lowest relative drop of manufacturing among all counties except again for Snohomish.<\/p>

What is behind the outperformance of Walla Walla\u2019s manufacturing sector? Due to data suppression by the source, Washington State Employment Security (ESD), to provide enough confidentiality, it is difficult to track all the industries over time. But ESD data do show increases in the two largest industries:\u00a0 food & beverage as well as machinery manufacturers.<\/p>

Ranked fourth in 2018 was agriculture, at 13.4% of the county\u2019s workforce. Like healthcare & social assistance, agriculture has gained in importance over the past 15 years, its share picking up nearly two percentage points. Nationally, agriculture\u2019s share of the labor force has fallen over the same period. Not here.<\/p>

Last among the top five sectors in Walla Walla was retailing, at 8.4% of the workforce. Its share has declined slightly over the past decade and half. Unlike the other top sectors, its total workforce has shrunk here, although general merchandise (big box) store employment has run counter to the decline.<\/p>

Just missing an appearance in the top five sectors is the hospitality sector. This consists of eating and drinking establishments, and to a lesser extent, all forms of accommodations providers. Hospitality, not surprisingly, has grown relatively rapidly over the past 15 years, picking up one-third more workers. In 2018, it claimed 2,000 on the total payroll. Given the very slow employment growth in the retail sector, Walla Walla hospitality will likely land in the top five within three years.<\/p>

Why should we care about the relative importance of these sectors in the economy, beyond any general interest in knowing how Walla Walla\u2019s structure is different from its Washington neighbors? Because the sectors compensate its workers at different levels, leading to a much different ranking in terms of wages paid. If the indicator of the top five sectors were re-cast by wages, the mix would be the same, but the shares would be much different. By this measure, the largest sectors by employment grow even more important:\u00a0 government claims 25%, manufacturing 18%, and healthcare & social assistance 17%. In contrast, agriculture shrinks to 9% and retail to 5%.<\/p>

If a major goal of economic development efforts is to raise total income in the county, one would point the recruitment compass to the first three sectors. Easier said than done, of course, and some might not agree that expanding government jobs is a strategy to pursue. Or, perhaps one could aim the compass at those higher paying sectors that don\u2019t appear in the top five list, whether by head count or total wages. These are, ranked by average annual wage: scientific & professional services, finance and insurance, and information. At the moment, however, these sectors are quite small in Walla Walla. It would take many new jobs to vault them into the top five by total wages paid.<\/p>

For the foreseeable future, it seems to this observer that Walla Walla\u2019s economy will be based on a mix of jobs not unlike the past few years. The trends are likely to stay in place: faster than average growth in the healthcare and the hospitality sectors, leading to rising shares. For the other large sectors, the status seems likely to prevail.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div> <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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