by Dr. Patrick Jones
Measures of life in Walla Walla hold more than a few stories of expansion. Think of taxable retail sales. The share of the population who are registered voters. Or the share of the population with a bachelor’s degree or higher.
But population estimates here do not portray a growth story.
In estimates published by the Washington State Office of Financial Management around July 4th, about 300 more county residents were present April 1 of this year over April 1 of 2025. That brings a total of nearly 62,000, not counting the penitentiary population. The gain translates into a year-over-year growth rate of 0.5%. Even in the world of population growth rates, which are typically low single digits, this is a tepid rate.
The state, not surprisingly, grew faster, at 0.8%. But with that rate, set against recent rapid advances – all above 1% per year, represented a significant downturn.
That said, last year’s result for the county was in keeping with the simple average annual growth rate over the past years, at 0.5%. In contrast, the recent year-over-year growth rate for Benton and Franklin Counties was, at 1.9%, nearly quadruple the local rate. Spokane County’s recent year-over-year rate was a wee bit higher than the state’s, although lower than in recent years. A fun fact: At the current pace of growth, it will take 145 years before Walla Walla County’s population doubles.
Population can increase either via the “natural increase,” or the surplus of births over deaths. Or, by a net positive count of residents who moved here from someplace else. As the Trends indicator on residual net migration shows, any increases in the county have been due to the latter factor. In fact, the natural increase in the county has been consistently negative since the start of the pandemic! To be fair, Walla Walla is not alone with this composition of population growth. Several other Washington counties, all rural, have found themselves in this situation recently.
Of course, the low pace may not be a negative. Perhaps a tortoise pace is what many Walla Wallans wish. After all, it was only a few years ago that bumper stickers could be seen on local vehicles with the cry “don’t Bend Walla Walla.” Perhaps some or many residents are content to keep the population count much as it has been. Perhaps some will be satisfied that as personal income goes up, the county stays small but wealthier.
But it’s hard to imagine that median household income and wealth can accrue at a smart pace if certain conditions aren’t meant. To attract newcomers, a community should have solid retail offerings. This is hard to do, if nearby communities are increasing their headcount much faster. Retailers will simply follow the numbers.
Similarly, healthcare offerings, especially for specialized care, may stagnate if there is not a relatively large base to support providers. The result: more out-of-town trips for healthcare. And local school districts need at least a stable, i.e., not falling student count, to be able to offer both basic education and enriched programs.
Finally, existing and potential employers may not see Walla Walla as a desirable locale to expand in or enter if they face a stagnant or even declining workforce. The labor market challenges posed by an aging population are not unique to Walla Walla, of course. But given the county’s age profile, they are likely a bit more acute here. Without an expanding workforce, it is difficult to imagine the local economy faring well, nor local governments receiving the revenues required to provide their services.
So, a case can be made for the need to Walla Walla to step on the population pedal a bit. How much should residents want? That depends on the trade-off between the benefits mentioned above and the desire to keep Walla Walla and not Bend. How much local attitude influences net in-migration is an open question, of course. But at the margins, it likely makes a difference.